2018年1月21日05時00分
このアパートを拠点に取材した
■家賃月５万円、ラストベルトの「住人」に ニューヨーク支局・金成隆一（かなりりゅういち）
米国大統領ドナルド・トランプの支持者を取材するため、かつて鉄鋼業や製造業が栄え、いまは廃れた五大湖周辺の「ラストベルト」（さび付いた工業地帯）に通い始めて２年が過ぎた。労働者は一般的に組合員で民主党支持の傾
向が強かったが、共和党のトランプは諸州で連勝し、大統領の座に就いた。
振り返ると、取材の多くは金曜から日曜の３日間だった。食堂や飲み屋、取材先の自宅に通い、人々の日常に入り込もうとした。彼らは勤勉で優しく、仲間思い。生活の不安や不満を率直に話してくれた。だが、私はどこまでいっても訪問者。「数日後には街を去る人」だった。
ある日、現地の食堂で魚フライを食べていたら、自動車工場の元従業員が声をかけてきた。「１泊８０ドルのホテルはお金がかかるでしょ。私のアパートの方が安いよ」。光熱費込みで月４５０ドル（約５万円）出せば、角部屋が借りられるという。
見に行くと、部屋中にクモの巣が張っているが、冷蔵庫も何とか動きそうだし、シャワーもちゃんとお湯が出た。地域の住人になれば、彼らにもっと近づけるかもしれない。
政権発足から１年に向けた取材のため、昨年１０月からオハイオ州トランブル郡のアパートを拠点に、もう一歩踏み込んでみた。
■株価見ただろ？ 史上最高。認めるべきだ
トランブル郡ウォーレンで暮らし始めると、住人が気軽に声をかけてくれるようになった。そして、私がお手伝いにまわる機会も出てきた。
「今日の午後ヒマ？ 病院に送ってもらえない？」
「車を修理に出すので、その後、自宅まで送ってもらえないか」
こんな電話が入るようになった。地方では車を持たない隣人を送迎する助け合いは日常茶飯事。一時的とはいえ、地域の支え合いに組み込まれ、住人の頭数に入れてもらった気がした。
「見ただろ？ 史上最高を記録したぞ」
自宅までの送迎のお礼にコーヒーをごちそうしてくれるという元製鉄所勤務のジョセフ・シュローデン（６３）は、喫茶店で顔を合わせるなりこう切り出した。長年の民主党員からトランプ支持に転じた一人。通称ジョー。トランプ政権に満足しているのか、聞いてみたかった。
私は勘違いし、支持率は歴代大統領でも最低だと返したら、「違う、俺は株価の話をしてるんだ」という。知り合って１年半以上になるが、株の話など聞いたことがない。「俺なんて、まるまる肥えた金持ちに比べれば、ちっぽけなジャガイモだが、それでも１４万ドル（約１５００万円）分の株を持っている」。ジョーの長話が始まった。
「最初はスターバックスの株を買い、その後に（通信大手の）ＡＴ＆Ｔに買い替えたが、ウンともスンとも動かない。そこでトランプが『米国に製鉄業を取り戻す』と言うから、ＵＳスチールに買い替えた。何が起きたかわかるか？」
ジョーは前のめりになって続けた。「１株１９ドルだったが今ではこうだ！」
ひじを直角に曲げて、右肩上がりの直線を作った。「今朝、２９ドル目前だぞ。すごい大統領の誕生だ」
米ギャラップ社によると米国では成人の５４％が株を持っている。日銀によると、家計の金融資産の構成比は日本では現金・預金が５２％、株・投資信託は１５％だが、米国では逆に現金・預金が１３％と少なく、株・投資信託が４７％。年金が株で運用されることも多く、中間層も恩恵を受ける。
ジョーは民主党批判を始めた。「繰り返すが、でっかいジャガイモ（富裕層）は俺の何百倍も何千倍ももうけている。俺が言いたいのは、その中には大勢の民主党の政治家や支持者も含まれるってことだ。口には出さないが、みんなもうかってる。なのにトランプを一言も褒めない。素直に功績を認めるべきだ」とぼやいた。
■雇用が戻らない。もう二度と、あんな男には
金曜の夜、一軒家に肉体労働を終えた男たちが続々と集まった。溶接工、タイル職人。郵便配達人の姿もある。週末のたまり場だ。
私も近くで暮らし始めたことで、時間を気にせず入り浸るようになった。
勝手に冷蔵庫から缶ビールを取って飲み始める。ほぼ全員がトランプ支持者だったが、１０月下旬になって初めて批判を聞いた。
「トランプに投票したけど、今は後悔している。もう二度と、あんな男には入れない」
自分はどうかしていたという表情なのは、建設作業員ジャーメイン・クーハー（３８）。高校卒業後、１９９８年に製鉄工場で働き始めた。父や祖父、おじら「一族の男」は例外なく製鉄所で働いてきたため迷うことはなかった。クレーン車を操縦し、金属製品の性能を確かめる試験担当者だったが、０４年に工場がメキシコ移転を決め、解雇された。
２年ほど職を転々とした後、アルミニウム工場に雇われたが、ここも５年ほどでメキシコ移転を決めて閉鎖。再び解雇された。「せっかく仕事を覚え、技術を身につけても、工場がなくなってしまえば、どんな積み重ねも無意味だよ」
２度目の解雇の後は長距離トラックの運転手になった。シカゴとカリフォルニアの間２２００マイル（３５００キロ）をレタスなど野菜を満載にした大型トラックで毎週往復した。一度自宅を出ると２カ月間は車内での暮らしが続く。家族との時間を犠牲にしても年収３万ドル（３３０万円）。この仕事は自らあきらめた。
その後、知人が営む建設会社で雇ってもらえた。
「４０歳目前の今、最低賃金で働いている。稼ぎは２０歳代の半分ぐらい。あんまりだろ？ 悲しいだろ？」
ジャーメインの思いを知っていたかのように、トランプは選挙戦で「米国に製造業を取り戻す」「私が大統領になれば米国は再び勝ち始める」と訴えた。
「あんなことを言ったのはトランプだけだった。一族が民主党員だったが、変化を起こして欲しいという思いだったよ」
最後は投票したことへの言い訳のような口調だった。トランプ政権に満足かと聞くと、ジャーメインは首を横に振った。
「いい賃金の雇用が戻る気配はゼロ。株価が上がっても、俺には関係ない。彼がまじめに仕事をしているとは思えない。大統領という肩書にあこがれたんだろう。薬物汚染や北朝鮮など問題が山積みの時に、なぜ彼はアメフト選手のニーダウン（黒人差別などに抗議し、国歌斉唱時に片ひざを地面につく選手らの行動）をツイッターで連日のようにつぶやく？ 本当に後悔している」
■公的医療が削られたら…。薬代は払えない
年末、一軒家でクリスマスパーティーが開かれた。
私もリラックスするつもりだったが、そうもいかなくなった。ピザを食べ始めたら、ファミレスで２５年間働くメアリー・ギル（６４）が不安を打ち明け始めたからだ。「最近どうにも元気が出なくて。でも医療保険の請求書が来るから何とか働いているのよ」
携帯電話に請求書の写真が保存されていた。月８６４ドル（約９万５千円）。「でもね、来年は６５歳になるので（高齢者向けの公的医療制度）メディケアに入れて負担額が下がるの」
長女ステファニー（４３）が口を挟んだ。「でもママ、議会はどうするかしら？ ニュースで見たでしょ。公的医療を削減したがっているって」
米国では昨年１２月、税制改革法が成立。トランプは「米史上最大の減税と税制改革」と誇った。減税規模は１０年間で１・５兆ドル（約１６５兆円）に及ぶ。
しかし米国には歳入減を歳出減などで埋め合わせ、財政赤字を増やさないという原則があり、有力な議員から歳出減を求める声が相次ぐ。共和党重鎮で財政保守派の下院議長ライアンは「ヘルスケアの給付が借金を押し上げている」と主張してきた。
ステファニーが続けた。「本当に公的医療が削減されれば、ジェノサイド（集団殺害）よ。医療費を払えない家庭が続出する。私だって難病の娘を抱え、薬代が払えなくなる」
トランプは「社会保障とメディケア、メディケイド（低所得者向けの公的医療制度）の削減はないと言明する最初で唯一の共和党候補者」と宣伝してきた。ステファニーを含め、これを信じて投票した労働者は少なくないが、最近はトランプの口からも「福祉改革」という言葉が出るようになっている。
ステファニーが天井を見上げて言った。「私たちにできるのは、神がトランプの判断と行動を導くよう祈ることだけ」
（敬称略）
〈＋ｄ〉デジタル版のルポ連載「金成隆一『トランプ王国』熱狂のあと」は、トランプ大統領就任１年を機に、再び随時更新していきます。
Majority Of Americans See Trump’s First Year As A Failure
Americans give President Trump relatively positive marks on his handling of ISIS and the state of the economy.
Olivier Douliery/Pool/Getty Images
As President Trump approaches the one-year anniversary of his inauguration, a majority of Americans think that his first year in office has been a failure and that he has divided the nation.
NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll data released Thursday finds that Americans deemed Trump’s first year a failure, 53 percent to 40 percent. And by an almost 2-to-1 ratio (61 percent to 32 percent), Americans said they believe Trump has divided the country since his election.
Americans give Trump relatively positive marks on his handling of ISIS and the state of the economy — no small things. But they disapprove of his handling of just about every other issue or think things have gotten worse — from their views of the tax plan to the state of race relations and women’s rights to immigration, health care, the deficit and foreign policy, including his approach to North Korea. Seven in 10 Americans are now concerned about the possibility of war breaking out with the rogue nuclear nation.
“The first-year grades for Trump are not good,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. “He remains with his base intact and not much else. People remain doubtful in the institutions of our government, doubtful in how he’s communicating things and how he’s handling things. It’s not a pretty picture for the president after the first year.”
A majority of Americans continue to disapprove of the job Trump is doing overall (53 percent), think the country is headed in the wrong direction (57 percent), overwhelmingly believe his policies are directed toward helping the wealthy (60 percent) as opposed to the middle class (25 percent), and see his use of Twitter as a risky way to communicate (78 percent) that isn’t sending the right message.
Trump still enjoys loyal support from his core and unwavering base — but not many others. He has slipped with independents, for example, a group he won in 2016. None of that bodes well for Republicans in this year’s midterms.
Not meeting expectations
Nearly half of Americans (46 percent) said Trump’s presidency has fallen below their expectations. A third said he has met their expectations, while just 15 percent said he has exceeded them.
A third of Americans said Trump’s first year was a “major failure.” Just 15 percent described it as a “major success.”
Notably, half of independents called Trump’s first year in office a failure, including a 30 percent plurality who said it was a “major failure.”
Forty-four percent of independents said Trump had fallen below their expectations as president in his first year, while 36 percent said he had met them. Just 16 percent said he had exceeded.
Unsurprisingly, there is a sharp partisan divide — 87 percent of Democrats called Trump’s first year a failure and 71 percent said he had fallen below their expectations as president.
On the other hand, 87 percent of Republicans called his first year a success, with 37 percent saying it was a major success. Among core Trump supporters, 91 percent also said it was successful, with 40 percent saying it was a major success.
Continued steady and historically low approval
Trump’s approval ratings also remain low — with just 37 percent approving of the job he is doing as president overall while 39 percent strongly disapprove.
Those numbers are virtually unchanged from the past several months, as Trump’s base remains in his corner — 85 percent of Republicans approve of the job he is doing, along with 90 percent of Trump supporters.
But again problems with independents show up for Trump — just 38 percent of them approve of his job performance.
Better or worse?
Americans overall are pessimistic about the general direction of the country under Trump. Forty-two percent said the country has changed for the worse under this president, just 36 percent said it has been changed for the better, and 21 percent said they’ve seen no real change at all.
Once again, though, those opinions are split along partisan lines. Almost three-fourths of Democrats said the country has changed for the worse over the past year. Republicans say the country has changed for the better 79 percent to 7 percent.
Independents are nearly evenly split on the question — with 40 percent saying things have gotten worse and 38 percent saying they are better.
It’s worth pointing out that those splits come despite the economy’s continuing to improve.
A nation divided?
Nearly all Democrats (90 percent) and a majority of independents (59 percent) said they believe the president has divided the nation over the past year.
Trump’s numbers with Republicans are a bit softer here, but still, they overwhelmingly (70 percent to 21 percent) said they think he has united the country.
The good: ISIS and the economy
Trump gets his best marks for his handling of ISIS and the state of the economy, but not by overwhelming margins. Almost half (48 percent) approve of how his administration has worked to defeat the terrorist organization, although 40 percent disapprove.
The strong economy is the where Americans see Trump as having the most impact. Twenty-one percent singled out that issue, followed closely by 20 percent who said taxes — just on the heels of the tax overhaul that Congress passed last month.
Forty-four percent of Americans said the economy has improved under Trump, while 35 percent say it has stayed about the same.
On trade, Americans are divided, with 44 percent disapproving of how he has handled the issue and 43 percent approving. Trump pulled the U.S. out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal after he was elected, and he wanted to renegotiate NAFTA or even end it. That is a winning issue with independents by a 6-point margin, and over three-fourths of Republicans like how he has handled trade.
The bad: everything else
On a host of issues, from race relations to women’s rights to foreign policy, Americans think things have gotten worse under this president.
Some 56 percent said race relations have worsened under Trump during the past year. (This survey was conducted before Trump reportedly used vulgar language in a meeting to disparage African nations and wondered why the United States continues to admit people from impoverished countries like Haiti rather than places like — overwhelmingly white — Norway.)
While Republicans support Trump overwhelmingly on almost every other issue including his job performance, his handling of race relations is the one area in which they are split — 24 percent of Republicans believe they have gotten better, 24 percent say they’ve gotten worse and another 48 percent say they’ve stayed about the same.
When it comes to women’s rights, 37 percent of Americans think things have worsened, 40 percent believe the issue has stayed about the same and 18 percent believe it has improved.
But there is a significant gender gap. Nearly half of women (46 percent) believe the problem has worsened (15 percent think it has gotten better). Men, on the other hand, overwhelmingly think women’s rights have stayed about the same (45 percent). One in 5 men (21 percent) think they’ve gotten better; 29 percent think they’ve gotten worse.
Trump also gets low marks for how he has handled immigration and health care, with 58 percent disapproving of his handling of both issues.
Republicans failed to repeal the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare. And Congress is trying to find a way forward on how to deal with so-called DREAMers, immigrants who were brought to the United States illegally as children. Some 700,000 had received temporary protection under the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, or the DACA program set up by President Barack Obama. Trump rescinded the executive order last year, and protections for DACA recipients expire March 5.
Trump has maintained he wants funding for a wall along the southern border with Mexico, which he touted repeatedly on the campaign trail, in exchange for a reprieve from deportation for DACA recipients.
The wall, getting rid of the health care mandate and paying for the tax bill all cost money — and on the deficit, 53 percent of Americans disapprove of how Trump has handled it. Just a third approve.
Major worries about North Korea
On his overall handling of foreign policy, over half (54 percent) of Americans say it has gotten worse over the past year, with a quarter saying it has gotten better.
Trump has gotten into a war of words with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, threatening military action and even disparagingly tweeting about him, nicknaming Kim “Little Rocket Man.”
None of that has helped Trump in the eyes of Americans. Overwhelming numbers say they are concerned about the possibility of war with North Korea.
Seventy-one percent said so, with 44 percent saying they are very concerned.
More than half (58 percent) disapprove of how Trump has handled the rising tensions with the nuclear power, and just over a third approve.
Half of Americans believe North Korea is a major threat to U.S. security — a number that has actually decreased since April, when 61 percent saw it as a major threat. Now, 39 percent classify the country as a minor threat while only 8 percent said it poses no threat at all.
Republicans are the least concerned of any political party subgroup, but a majority (57 percent) still say they are concerned in some way. About a quarter of GOP voters aren’t very concerned, with 21 percent saying they aren’t concerned at all.
Public remains unconvinced on tax bill
That tax bill is opposed by 46 percent of Americans, with 36 percent saying they approved of the bill. Again, that is split largely along partisan lines, with three-quarters of Republicans favoring the bill, and independents liking it by a 4-point margin. Seventy-nine percent of Democrats opposed the bill.
The problem for Trump and congressional Republicans is that the public overwhelmingly sees the bill as largely helping business over working people nearly 3 to 1 (64 percent to 22 percent). Even Republicans are soft on it, with 47 percent saying it will help working people and 31 percent believing it largely helps businesses.
Still, Americans are nearly evenly split as to whether the bill will hurt their family financially (40 percent) or help them (39 percent.) Sixty-nine percent of Republicans think it will help their family, while 65 percent of Democrats think it will do more harm than good. By a 4-point margin, independent voters think the bill will mostly help them (40 percent) rather than hurt (36 percent).
Overall, Americans think that Trump’s policies overwhelmingly support wealthy Americans (60 percent) over the middle class (25 percent) by a 35-point margin. Independents divide along similar lines, while 59 percent of Republicans think his policies help middle-class Americans.
Looking ahead to 2018
Trump’s inability to widen his coalition, especially by continuing to alienate independent voters, could be a major detriment in this year’s looming midterm elections. Given where his approval ratings are and the fact that the first midterm of a president’s term is typically a referendum on his job so far, there area plenty of signs of a possible wave that could flip control of the House — and, in a much longer shot, the Senate.
Congressional Republicans have even lower ratings than Trump, with only 28 percent of Americans approving of the job they’re doing, while 61 percent disapprove.
However, the news isn’t much better for Democrats, who find themselves in virtually the same position — 28 percent approval with 57 percent disapproval.
When asked who they would vote for in November, Democrats have a 6-point edge over Republicans, 46 percent to 40 percent. That is a shift since Marist last polled in December, finding a 13-point advantage for Democrats. Other recent polling has also given Democrats a double-digit edge — another harbinger of a possible wave that could swing control of the House.
Miringoff attributed the swing — which has also tightened in past polls — to a shift in independent voters moving to uncertain. In this survey, they preferred Republicans by a 2-point margin, 38 percent to 36 percent, with 11 percent undecided. The survey was done when a potential immigration compromise looked possible, as Trump led a bipartisan group of lawmakers in conversation at the White House.
“Democrats and Republicans are mostly locked into supporting their respective party’s candidates for Congress. Independents are swayed by what is happening at the time of the survey,” Miringoff said. “So, when President Trump is in Asia or his tweeting is less frequent or Congress gets its act together and gets things done, the government looks less dysfunctional. When this happens, the GOP brand is viewed less negatively and the gap between the parties on the congressional generic narrows. ”
But when Trump becomes more unpredictable — especially on Twitter — those numbers could shift and harm the GOP. An overwhelming 78 percent majority think that the president’s use of Twitter is a risky way to communicate, with just 15 percent saying it sends the right message. Even 57 percent of Republicans think his tweets are often risky, while 31 percent of GOP voters think it sends the right message.
Partisan divide remains strong over past decade
One bit of solace for the Trump White House may be that Obama’s numbers on some of those same measures weren’t stellar either after his first year. A December 2009 Marist poll found 47 percent said Obama had fallen below their expectations, 42 percent said he had met them and only 7 percent said he had exceeded them.
But he also had a majority on his side when Americans were asked about the direction Obama was taking the country. Trump doesn’t have that. Only 44 percent said the country was changing for the better, while 35 percent said it was changing for the worse.
The direction of the country has stayed consistent — on the surface — with Americans appearing to be pessimistic in similar numbers. But inside the numbers, they have shifted in a big way.
In September 2016, 58 percent of Democrats thought the country was moving in the right direction, while 85 percent of Republicans thought it was going in the wrong direction.
Fast-forward to today, and it’s the opposite — three-quarters (73 percent) of Republicans think the country is going in the right direction and 84 percent of Democrats think it’s the opposite.
地球倫理：Global Ethics 