Abe faces challenge of maintaining momentum for constitutional reform
TOKYO
The ruling Liberal Democratic Party put on a show of unity at its annual convention Sunday, with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe reiterating his pledge to seek the first-ever amendment of the pacifist Constitution.
But Abe is facing increasing challenges in keeping his constitutional reform drive on track, with cronyism allegations leveled at him eroding his popularity and emboldening opposition parties.
At the convention, Abe, who also heads the LDP, emphatically called on members to work on the revision of the iconic war-renouncing Article 9 of the postwar Constitution, with the aim of adding an explicit reference to the country’s defense forces.
“Why don’t we bravely carry out this mission and together build a new age?” he said, receiving cheers and applause from the audience.
But some political experts said many LDP lawmakers appear to have lost their enthusiasm for constitutional change, after seeing the government jolted by recent revelations of document-tampering related to a cut-price state land sale to a nationalist school operator with ties to Abe’s wife.
“At present, many members will likely be too busy thinking about how they can cling to power and will hardly have time to think about constitutional matters. The LDP, however, cannot back away from the issue after having worked on it,” said Koichi Nakano, a political science professor at Sophia University.
Abe has denied involvement in the document alteration, in which references to Abe and his wife Akie were removed, vowing to ensure that such a thing does not happen again.
But the scandal has led Cabinet support ratings to plunge to around 30 percent in some media polls, clouding the prospects for Abe’s bid to be re-elected in September as LDP president to continue pursuing his conservative agenda to revise the Constitution, drafted by the U.S.-led occupation forces after World War II.
“In general, a government that is unpopular cannot secure desirable voting results in a national referendum…because more people may be inclined to cast their ballots as a protest vote against the government,” Nakano said, referring to the plebiscite that would ultimately determine constitutional change.
The amendment process requires delicate handling, partly because of the high hurdles to proposing any change. The ruling coalition will need the help of some opposition forces to secure the two-thirds majorities in each parliamentary chamber required before amendment proposals can be put to a national referendum.
With key political events scheduled in 2019, including Emperor Akihito’s abdication in April and a House of Councillors election in the summer, 2018 has been seen by the LDP as relatively suitable for advancing talks with other parties on the divisive issue and passing amendment proposals in the Diet.
But it remains unclear when the LDP will start discussions with other parties on specific amendment proposals, with the LDP’s junior coalition ally Komeito and opposition parties feeling the need to first get to the bottom of the scandal that has seriously undermined the trust between the government and parliament.
While riding out the political storm is a top priority for Abe, the success of his constitutional amendment drive will hinge on whether the LDP’s revision proposals can secure wide acceptance.
The LDP has decided to follow Abe’s suggestion in May last year that the Self-Defense Forces should be mentioned in the pacifist clause to leave no room for them to be called unconstitutional.
The 1947 Constitution, created in response to Japan’s wartime military aggression, renounces war and bans the possession of military forces and other “war potential” in Article 9. The pacifism embedded in the article is cherished by many members of the public.
The government has long asserted the constitutionality of the SDF by defining them as an organization different from ordinary militaries, with the use of force strictly limited to self-defense and the possession of armaments restricted from reaching a level constituting “war potential.”
But the SDF have expanded their activities over time and have become known as one of the top 10 well-equipped and well-funded forces in the world, leading some constitutional scholars to argue that the SDF are in fact “war potential.”
Hideaki Shinoda, an international politics professor at the Tokyo University of Foreign Studies, said Abe’s proposal can be seen as “a first step” toward straightening out the various disputes over the interpretation of Article 9, but “a very small” step.
“The change brought about by that proposal would be far from a full settlement, because it will only recognize an organization called the SDF as constitutional and nothing more. Debate will continue on the scope of their activities and so on,” he said.
As an expert on international peacekeeping, which the SDF have also taken part in, Shinoda expressed hope that constitutional revisions will also be discussed in light of how to “harmonize” the interpretation of Article 9 with international law so Japan can better serve as a member of the international community.
From that viewpoint, Shinoda agrees with the idea of labeling the SDF as “military” under Article 9, which he says would facilitate SDF operations overseas and ensure that Japanese troops are not left out of international legal coverage for the humanitarian treatment of military personnel in war.
But Article 9 has a “symbolic” existence in the Constitution and it cannot be helped that lawmakers are reluctant to pursue changes that could be seen by the public as drastically redefining the meaning of the clause, he said.
The LDP plans to finalize an Article 9 revision proposal that will not affect the wording of the original text and only add new lines mentioning the SDF. The move is intended to show that the activities and capabilities of the SDF will be bound as they are now.
But critics say questions will likely remain over whether there is really a need to hold such a referendum, costing around 85 billion yen ($812 million) of taxpayers’ money, if the purpose of the amendment, as stated by Abe, is simply to affirm the status quo.
© KYODO
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